The opposite...

I was talking the other day over the phone with my good friend "A", and he told me how he saw the convoy of the President of the United States passing through the streets around his office. All the streets were closed, and of course, traffic jams were all around.

So, I told him about the story I am about to tell you now, which is related to some interesting concept of how expectations can change themselves and also change behavior, as economic science suggests.

Well, it was around April 2008, and the US President - George W. Bush - came to Jerusalem in an official visit. I was living in Jerusalem then, and along to all the residents in the city, we were "warned" by the police department that a number of streets will be closed during the official visit. The recommendation was to avoid using any kind of transportation, because heavy traffic jams were expected during those days. Well, when the day came, I called my boss and told him I will work from home (lucky I of having that possibility). My office was in Kiriat Gat, a city located some 80 km distance from Jerusalem, and I thought that on my way back - around 6 or 7 pm - all the streets will collapse in traffic jams.

The day came, and what happened? Well, apparently I was not the only one with the same expectations, and the equilibrium around most of the residents of the city was the same - staying home for the day. The streets were EMPTY... It was more than perfect for those who used their cars that day.

Well, this is not the end of the story. A month later, Bush came back to celebrate the 60th Israel's Independence anniversary in May 2008. Again, all of us, Jerusalem residents, were warned: because of security reasons, most of the streets in downtown Jerusalem (where I used to live) were going to be closed during those days. So, what was the outcome? People, thought that the previous equilibrium was stable, and everybody used their cars that day (including me...). It took me about 3 hours to get from the University to my place at 6pm, when the ride usually takes about 15 minutes. It was really crazy. Everybody was in the same situation. The equilibrium was the opposite of the previous one. People expected all the other people to stay home, and take advantage of an "empty" Jerusalem, free of traffic. Expectations were adjusted to the previous outcome, and people behaved according to those expectations.

So, what is the lesson from all of this? I don't know. But what I do know is that this whole story reminds me of George Constanza when he realized that everything he decides to do is wrong, so Jerry advises him to do the following: "If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right". And indeed, he goes for it, and everything seems to improve for him. Here is a scene from that episode: "The opposite". Enjoy it!